COVID-19 a nivel local: SEIR+ un modelo para proyectar escenarios epidemiológicos y demandas hacia el sistema sanitario


  • Alejandro Danón Universidad Nacional de Tucumán; BICE
  • Andrés S. Mena Universidad Nacional de Tucumán; CONICET
  • Andrés Ramasco Universidad Nacional de Tucumán


Palabras clave:

COVID, pronóstico SEIR, demanda sanitaria


Este trabajo presenta un modelo capaz de describir y proyectar la evolución del COVID-19 a
nivel local. Para ello, diseñamos, programamos, y calibramos un modelo epidemiológico “SEIR
plus” que además de los cuatro estados principales del modelo SEIR clásico, describe la
trayectoria de enfermos severos y críticos, estados esenciales para la planificación del sistema
de salud. Además, sumamos particularidades locales, como ser la curva etaria de la población
y medidas de mitigación que impacten en el factor reproductivo. Asimismo, nuestro modelo
es estocástico debido a la incorporación de incertidumbre en variables claves asociadas al
virus y de difícil proyección para el hacedor de políticas. El modelo muestra un buen ajuste
adentro y afuera de la muestra en su aplicación a Ciudad de Buenos Aires y Tucumán,
Argentina. Finalmente, mostramos su aplicación para Tucumán, proyectando un escenario
epidemiológico factible, y las demandas del sistema sanitario.


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Cómo citar

Danón, A., Mena, A. S., & Ramasco, A. (2021). COVID-19 a nivel local: SEIR+ un modelo para proyectar escenarios epidemiológicos y demandas hacia el sistema sanitario. Ensayos De Política Económica, 3(3), 1–24.